In the past decade, young people have risen to the forefront of civic and political life in the United States, leading major movements for action on issues like gun violence, climate, and racial justice. In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, young people ages 18 to 34 amount to more than 40 million potential voters, and they make up nearly one-fifth of the American electorate.
Their political power made it important before the election to identify the states and districts where young people across the political spectrum were most likely to shape the presidential, Senate, and House races.
The Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI)—an index developed at Tisch College of Civic Life at Tufts—helped rank those states and districts. The YESI was based on a number of factors, including projected competitiveness, voting laws, past youth participation, and various demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
Rankings were meant to provide campaigns, communities, and organizations with information that might help them engage all young people and increase involvement in democratic processes.
For example, the YESI ranked Michigan the top state in terms of the potential of young voters there to help shape the presidential election. Michigan had the highest youth voter turnout rate in the country (36%) in 2022, and currently has one of the highest youth voter registration rates in the U.S. Moreover, the state has automatic, online, and same-day registration, making it one of the easiest states in which to participate in elections.
In Senate races, the survey ranked Montana the state where young voters can be the most influential. As noted by the index, Montana has had strong, above-average youth voter participation in recent elections, including the second-highest youth voter turnout rate in the 2018 midterms. Youth in the state can take advantage of same-day voter registration and no-excuse absentee voting.
Having such information in hand can help voter engagement groups reach young people and support their participation in elections.
Information for the YESI came from Tisch College’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), a nonpartisan, independent research organization focused on youth civic engagement in the United States. CIRCLE conducts extensive research on youth participation and leverages that research to improve opportunities for all young people to acquire and use the skills and knowledge they need to meaningfully participate in civic life.
Updated: September 5, 2024